HINTERGRUND : Die Veränderung der Machtbalance im Mittleren Osten. Eine Analyse von TY JOPLIN

Deutsche Zusammenfassung:
Russland konnte sich in Syrien als maßgebliche Kraft etablieren. Die Türkei mit ihren überregionalen Ambitionen spielt nach Ty Joplin nun strategisch ein Doppelspiel. Entweder die USA entsprechen ihren Zielen oder die Türkei nähert sich noch mehr Russland an. Als Anzeichen der Verschiebung des Gleichgewichts der Kräfte sieht Ty Joplin den Kauf des russischen S-400-Raketenabwehrsystems durch die Türkei, das mit dem NATO-Verteidigungssystem nicht kompatibel ist. Eine Analyse auf Al Bawaba.

NATO’s Disappearance from the Middle East Starts in Turkey

 

  • A subtle shift in the balance of power is underway in the Middle East
  • Turkey is seeking closer relations with Russia
  • As a result, NATO member countries risk being pushed out of the region
  • NATO is seeking to bolster its partnership with Jordan to re-balance power

By Ty Joplin

In the power struggle between the Soviet Union and the West during the 20th century, the Middle East was seen as a region on the fringes of global power. But things are changing fast, and the Middle East is storming onto the scene as the center-point upon which the world’s powers balance and counterbalance.

Since the region opened with the 2011 Arab Spring, regional and global powers have surged forward to secure holdings and stake out interests. One key outlet Europe and the U.S. has to project their power has been the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, or NATO.

Its key member, which grants NATO access to the Middle East, has been Turkey. But as Russia emerges onto the scene as a powerbroker, and Iran becomes a force worth engaging with, Turkey appears to be moving away from NATO.

As a result, Western powers may become irrelevant in the region, isolated without an access point into the region.

Understanding these subtle shifts now will help inform what may happen in the near future in the Middle East, as Russia looks poised to replace the West as the arbiter of power.

Traditionally, NATO was established to counter the Soviet bloc during The Cold War, but since the demise of the Soviet Union, its role has morphed into a more general arm of the West.

NATO’s Activity in the Middle East

NATO’s involvement in the Middle East has thus far been limited. One notable exception is its intervention in the 2011 Libyan civil war where NATO forces enforced an arms embargo and no-fly zone over Libya. The intervention also included a campaign of airstrikes on Libyan military targets.

Turkey only took on a small role in the operations, and was later criticized by then U.S. Secretary of State Robert Gates for not committing more resources to the effort.

For the most part, Turkey has been the crucial gateway allowing NATO members to access the Middle East.

This may change as Russia and Turkey both look to grow their influences in the region, which may crowd out NATO.

“NATO’s main focus is to provide security in the Euro Atlantic Area, however, it has “borders” with the Mediterranean Sea and Turkey became a member in 1952,” said Boris Toucas, a Visiting Fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) to Al Bawaba.

“The need to keep the Soviet Union at bay pushed Turkey to join.”

Toucas claimed in an interview that NATO’s presence in the Middle East is meant to ensure stability rather than maximize Western power. This may change however, as Russia looks to accelerate its role in the region as a powerbroker and entice Turkey as an ally.

This would inevitably draw Turkey away from NATO, thus removing NATO’s ability to determine what the Middle East’s political landscape looks like.

NATO, Dr. Mohanad Hage Ali, Director of Communications at the Carnegie Middle East Center argued, “will become more relevant if the U.S. decides to confront Russia’s expanding role in the region, and that would most certainly re-enforce Turkey, which has now to continuously negotiate its influence and expansion of its ‘safe zone’ in Northern Syria, with Moscow.”

Russia has quickly become the leading power in Syria, …

Der ganze Artikel ist zu lesen in Al Bawaba (Amman, Jordanien)