ANALYSE – AFRIN. DIE KURDISCHE VERZWEIFLUNG, analysiert von Ty Joplin im jordanischen online-Medium Al Bawaba

Zusammenfassung auf deutsch:

Aus Verzweiflung vor einer drohenden Niederlage gegen die Türken suchen die Kurden die syrische Armee als Verbündete zu gewinnen. Sofern dies tatsächlich gelänge, würden die Kurden aber hierdurch auf ihre politische Autonomie verzichten, weil die Syrer wohl kaum mehr Afrin verlassen würden. Assad könnte auch bereits in der Gegend um Idlib in Konfrontation zu den Türken geraten, die bereits in Idlib fuß gefaßt haben, analysiert Ty Joplin in Al Bawaba.

The Afrin Confrontation Risks Kurdish Autonomy and War With Turkey

A deal is rumored to have been made between Syria and Kurdish militias
Syrian troops may help Kurdish forces oust Turkey from Afrin
If true, the deal re-callibrates both Assad’s and the Kurds‘ visions of Post-war Syria
The Syrian war is quickly becoming more politically chaotic

By Ty Joplin

Kurdish militias and the Syrian government have reportedly reached an agreement to deploy Syrian regime troops into Afrin to help defend it against the Turkish military.

If true, the deal would represent a massive concession by the Kurdish forces in Syria, one that spells danger for their political goal of autonomy in northern Syria.

Badran Jia Kurd, an adviser to the Kurdish-led administration in northern Syria confirmed to Reuters that the deal includes a Syrian troop deployment to besieged Afrin to help embattled Kurdish militias push out Turkish fighters.

The deal also reportedly includes enforcing a no-fly zone over Afrin, a move that was temporarily threatened by Assad. The no-fly zone would prevent Turkish drones and jets from conducting intelligence gathering missions and airstrikes, potentially offsetting Turkey’s current military advantage.

The reported deal looks to be born from desperation from the Kurdish forces, and imperils both sides’ political visions for Syria. But at the moment, each side appears to have little choice but to focus on limiting Turkey’s power and military presence in Syria.

The Danger of the Deal for Kurds

In January, Turkey launched Operation Olive Branch, invading the Afrin region of Syria, which lies on the Syria-Turkey border. Its stated goal is to clear the region of Kurdish militias, who are closely linked to the Kurdistan Worker’s Party (PKK) in Turkey—a group that has been warring with the Turkish government for decades.

The Kurdish forces in Afrin, mainly the People’s Protection Units (YPG), immediately lost territory under the Turkish blitz, which was long in the making, and sent reinforcements from northeastern Syria through Assad-controlled territory towards Afrin. Assad reportedly allowed the reinforcement to go through government territory because it contributed to a goal shared by both the Kurds and the Syrian government: to slow down Turkish gains in Syria.

But in reaching out to the Syrian government for military help, the Kurds are functionally sacrificing the total autonomy they have gained in Afrin, and in so doing, threaten the viability of future autonomy in Afrin and beyond for the Kurds. Put in simple terms, if the Syrian army goes into Afrin, they are likely to stay there, and give Assad a foothold through which to increase its involvement in Afrin.

In any future negotiation on Kurdish autonomy then, Afrin may be compromised for the Kurds.

Kurdish officials are clear that the military deal is just that: a military deal that has no bearing for the politics between the Kurds and Assad. But as the case is everywhere in the world, and is true especially in Syria, military power dictates how much political space and leverage one group has.

What Assad Has to Lose …

Der ganze Artikel ist zu lesen bei Al Bawaba (Amman, Jordanien)